Research

Working Papers

1. Flooded House or Underwater Mortgage? The Macrofinancial Implications of Climate Change and Adaptation (Job Market Paper)

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper TI 2023-014/IV, (available on SSRN). Revised: July, 2025.

Finalist, Young Economist Prize, European Central Bank (2024),

Best Student Paper Award, CEPR European Conference on Household Finance (2023),

Best Single-Authored Paper Award, European Sustainable Finance PhD Workshop (2023).

Abstract:  I study how climate change affects housing markets, mortgage credit, and private adaptation in a general-equilibrium framework with overlapping generations. Households are exposed to physical climate risks that damage housing and degrade land, which is inelastically supplied. While exposure to future climate risk lowers expected resale values, realized climate damages reduce habitable land, driving house prices up over time through scarcity. In frictionless markets, forward-looking prices support efficient private adaptation. However, credit constraints distort this mechanism: constrained households optimally underinvest in resilience, implying that pricing alone may be insufficient. Unequal adaptation amplifies wealth inequality and accelerates land degradation. Over generations, the adaptation gap widens endogenously as tightening credit constraints further limit investment in resilience. A counterfactual shift from constrained homeownership to landlord-based ownership shows that separating adaptation investment from borrowing constraints can restore efficiency.

Selected conferences: NBER SI (Household Finance); SED 2025 (Copenhagen); AEA-ASSA 2025 (poster session, San Francisco); ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 (Young Economist Competition); NY Fed & NYU Fed Climate Finance Conference 2024 (poster); MoFiR 2024 (London); CEPR-ESSEC-Luxembourgh Conference on Sustainable Financial Intermediation  2024 (Luxembourgh);  HEC Paris Finance PhD Workshop (2024); CEPR Household Finance 2023 (Turin); IWH-Fin-Fire Conference 2023 (Halle); Woman in Central Banking Workshop 2023 (Norges Bank); IPWSD at Columbia University in the City of New York 2023; CEPR Paris Symposium 2023 (poster session); European Sustainable Finance PhD Workshop 2023 (Utrecht). 

Seminars: Job talk Northwestern Kellogg School of Management; Stockholm School of Economics; Nova SBE; Bocconi; Frankfurt School of Finance & Management; Copenhagen Business School; BI Norwegian Business School; Vienna School of Economics and Business; KU Leuven; other Oxford University (Economics); HEC-HKUST Sustainable Finance Webinar; Massachusetts Institute of Technology  (Sustainable Urbanization Lab); Imperial College (Formal PhD Seminar);  University of Mannheim; De Nederlandsche Bank.

NBER Summer Institute presentation: Youtube (2:00:19 - 2:21:43). 

Media coverage: VoxTalks Economics 

2. Funding the Fittest? Pricing Climate Transition Risk in the Corporate Bond Market 

with M.A. Boermans & M.J.G. Bun. 

De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 797 (available on SSRN). Revised: October, 2025!

Abstract:  We study whether climate transition risk affects the cost of debt and how corporate bond investors value green innovation. Using confidential bond holdings and global firm data, we find a positive transition risk premium. This premium is significantly lower for emission-intensive firms engaging in green innovation, suggesting investors perceive green innovations to carry option value. Institutional investors, particularly mutual funds, exhibit higher demand for bonds issued by transitioning firms. Our findings suggest that risk pricing is the channel through which environmental performance influences yield spreads, highlighting the role of risk-bearing investors to channel capital to firms central to the transition. 

Selected conferences: FIRS 2025 (Seoul); IWH-Fin-Fire Conference 2025 (Halle); Econometric Society World Congres (Seoul)*; GRASFI 2024 (Singapore); ICFAB 2024 (Southampton)*; IAAE 2024 (Thessaloniki)*.

Seminars: Cambridge Judge School of Business; E-Axes Forum Young Scholars' Webinar; Nova SBE; Tilburg University;  Imperial College (Informal PhD Seminar); ESCB  Research Cluster Climate Change*;  University of Utrecht (School of Economics)*; De Nederlandsche Bank;  Robeco Asset Management.

Webinar:  E-Axes Forum Young Scholars' Webinar.

Policy notes: E-Axes Policy Brief  ·  De Nederlandsche Bank  ·  SUERF   ·  E-Axes Digest.

Media coverage: Bloomberg. 

3. Political Economy of Climate Change Adaptation

with E.C. Perotti & F. Van der Ploeg. 

CEPR Discussion Paper DP18959, CESifo Working Paper No. 10961, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper TI 2024-013/IV,  (available on SSRN). Revised: May, 2024.

Abstract: We study the evolution of voter support for climate policy when preferences respond to rising climate risk and economic inequality. Households differ in age, income and beliefs, and vote on public intervention to protect households from climate shocks. Support for preventive policy is initially low, gradually rising as climate risk increases. Beliefs on climate risk converge over time, while beliefs on public effectiveness persist and lead to rising disagreement. The political choice of climate intervention jumps at a tipping point driven by rising climate damage, as long as political beliefs are not too far apart. Rising inequality may induce a second tipping point. Agents do not fully internalize the effect of loss of habitat, leading to higher house prices. The political conflict combines with the "tragedy of the horizon" to produce underinvestment under any coalition.  

Selected conferences:  EJPE-CEPR-Bocconi Political Economy 2024 (Naples); SURED 2024  (Monte Verità); CEPR Paris Symposium 2023.

Policy notes: VoxEU.

4. Home Improvement, Wealth Inequality, and the Energy-Efficiency Paradox

with M.Droës.

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper TI 2024-026/IV,  (available on SSRN). Revised: May, 2025.

Abstract: We examine the pace at which households transition to greener housing and the implications of this transition for the distribution of wealth and CO2 emissions. Using unique Dutch microdata, we find that households in the lower part of the income distribution are disproportionately less likely to reside in energy-efficient properties or to undertake energy-efficiency-enhancing renovations. However, when they do invest in energy-efficiency, the associated present value of energy savings represents a share of net wealth that is approximately 4.5 times larger than that of households in the upper part of the distribution, while the latter emit around 1.5 times more CO2. Consequently, policies that promote green housing among lower-income households may alleviate poverty and reduce wealth inequality, yet achieve only a fraction of the potential reduction in CO2 emissions. Our findings highlight a fundamental trade-off between climate mitigation and the equitable distribution of wealth.

Selected conferences: AREUEA-ASSA 2025 (San Francisco); AREUEA International 2024 (Curaçao); ERES 2024 (Gdánsk)*. 

Seminars: Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy (EZK); Dutch Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations (BZK)*; De Nederlandsche Bank; ABN AMRO Bank; Dutch Competition Authority (ACM),  `Inequality in Rome' Seminar Series.

Policy notes: ESB (in Dutch).

Dissertation

Financing adaptation and the green transition: Climate risk, housing, and capital markets

Tinbergen Institute Research Paper Series 877. 

The chapters of this dissertation explore the macro-financial dimensions of climate change, examining how markets and financial frictions shape households’ adaptive responses and investors’ role in financing the transition. It shows how physical climate risks affect housing markets, highlighting how financial constraints hinder effective adaptation, reinforcing inequality and influencing political support for public intervention. On the transition side, it analyzes how capital markets price climate risk and value green innovation activity, underscoring the role of institutional investors in directing funds toward the green economy. Together, the chapters of this dissertation demonstrate how financial incentives, frictions, and political dynamics interact to shape climate resilience and the green transition.