Research

Working Papers

1. Flooded House or Underwater Mortgage? The Macrofinancial Implications of Climate Change and Adaptation

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper TI 2023-014/IV, (available on SSRN). Revised: January, 2026.

Finalist, Young Economist Prize, European Central Bank (2024),

Best Student Paper Award, CEPR European Conference on Household Finance (2023),

Best Single-Authored Paper Award, European Sustainable Finance PhD Workshop (2023).

Abstract:  I study how climate change affects housing markets, mortgage credit, and private adaptation in a general-equilibrium framework with overlapping generations. Households are exposed to physical climate risks that damage housing and degrade land, which is inelastically supplied. While exposure to future climate risk lowers expected resale values, realized climate damages reduce habitable land, driving house prices up over time through scarcity. In frictionless markets, forward-looking prices support efficient private adaptation. However, constrained households underinvest in resilience, implying that pricing alone may be insufficient. Unequal adaptation amplifies wealth inequality and accelerates land degradation. Over generations, the adaptation gap widens endogenously as tightening credit constraints further limit investment in resilience. A counterfactual shift from constrained homeownership to landlord-based ownership shows that separating adaptation investment from borrowing constraints can restore efficiency.

Selected conferences: FIRS 2026 (Miami); NBER SI 2025 (Household Finance); SED 2025 (Copenhagen);  AEA-ASSA 2025 (poster session, San Francisco);  ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 (Young Economist Competition); NY Fed & NYU Fed Climate Finance Conference 2024 (poster); MoFiR 2024 (London); CEPR-ESSEC-Luxembourgh Conference on Sustainable Financial Intermediation  2024 (Luxembourgh);  HEC Paris Finance PhD Workshop (2024); CEPR Household Finance 2023 (Turin); IWH-Fin-Fire Conference 2023 (Halle); Woman in Central Banking Workshop 2023 (Norges Bank); IPWSD at Columbia University in the City of New York 2023; CEPR Paris Symposium 2023 (poster session); European Sustainable Finance PhD Workshop 2023 (Utrecht). 

Invited seminars: Job talk Northwestern Kellogg School of Management; Stockholm School of Economics; Nova SBE; Bocconi; Frankfurt School of Finance & Management; Copenhagen Business School; BI Norwegian Business School; Vienna School of Economics and Business; KU Leuven; other Oxford University (Economics); Bonn Finance Seminar Series; CEPR Virtual Seminar on Climate Economics; HEC-HKUST Sustainable Finance Webinar; Transatlantic Seminar on Environmental and Energy Economics; Massachusetts Institute of Technology  (Sustainable Urbanization Lab); Imperial College London (formal PhD seminar); University of Mannheim; De Nederlandsche Bank.

NBER Summer Institute presentation: Youtube (2:00:19 - 2:21:43). 

Media coverage: VoxTalks Economics 

2. Funding the Fittest? Pricing Climate Transition Risk in the Corporate Bond Market 

with M.A. Boermans & M.J.G. Bun. 

De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 797 (available on SSRN). Revised: October, 2025.

Abstract:  We study whether climate transition risk affects the cost of debt and how corporate bond investors value green innovation. Using confidential bond holdings and global firm data, we find a positive transition risk premium. This premium is significantly lower for emission-intensive firms engaging in green innovation, suggesting investors perceive green innovations to carry option value. Institutional investors, particularly mutual funds, exhibit higher demand for bonds issued by transitioning firms. Our findings suggest that risk pricing is the channel through which environmental performance influences yield spreads, highlighting the role of risk-bearing investors to channel capital to firms central to the transition. 

Selected conferences: FIRS 2025 (Seoul); IWH-Fin-Fire Conference 2025 (Halle); Econometric Society World Congres 2024 (Seoul)*; GRASFI 2024 (Singapore); ICFAB 2024 (Southampton)*; IAAE 2024 (Thessaloniki)*.

Invited seminars: Cambridge Judge School of Business; E-Axes Forum Young Scholars' Webinar; Tilburg University; Robeco Asset Management; ESCB  Research Cluster Climate Change*;  University of Utrecht (School of Economics)*.

Webinar:  E-Axes Forum Young Scholars' Webinar.

Policy notes: E-Axes Policy Brief  ·  De Nederlandsche Bank  ·  SUERF  ·  E-Axes Digest.

Media coverage: Bloomberg. 

3. Political Economy of Climate Change Adaptation

with E.C. Perotti & F. Van der Ploeg. 

CEPR Discussion Paper DP18959, CESifo Working Paper No. 10961, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper TI 2024-013/IV,  (available on SSRN). Revised: May, 2024.

Abstract: We study the evolution of majority preferences for climate adaptation policy in response to rising economic inequality and climate risk. Households differ in age, income and beliefs, forming blocks to vote on preventive policy. Beliefs on climate risk converge over time, while beliefs on public effectiveness persist and lead to persisting disagreement. The initial majority favors a low intervention level, slowly rising as climate risk rises. The political majority shifts at a tipping point driven by young skeptical voters exposed to rising climate damage, unless beliefs are very far apart. A second tipping point may arise in response to rising inequality, though its effect on climate adaptation policy is ambiguous. Political conflict combined with the "tragedy of the horizon" effect produces underinvestment under any coalition.  

Selected conferences:  EJPE-CEPR-Bocconi Political Economy 2024 (Naples); SURED 2024  (Monte Verità); CEPR Paris Symposium 2023.

Policy notes: VoxEU.

4. Unequal Incentives: The Distributional and Emission Consequences of the Green Housing Transition

with M.Droës.

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper TI 2024-026/IV,  (available on SSRN). Revised: February, 2026.

Abstract:  We examine the pace of household transitions to greener housing and the distributional impacts on energy savings, wealth, and residential CO2 emissions. Using unique Dutch survey data covering all types of energy-efficiency home improvements, combined with households’ stated motivations and administrative records on utility expenditures, income, and wealth, we show that low-income households are less likely to reside in energy-efficient homes or undertake improvements, mainly due to affordability constraints. Higher-income households more frequently cite financial returns and climate considerations as primary motivations. Nearly 40% of unrealized mitigation potential is concentrated among low-income households, highlighting the potential for targeted policies to reduce both emissions and inequality simultaneously.

Selected conferences: AREUEA-ASSA 2025 (San Francisco); AREUEA International 2024 (Curaçao); ERES 2024 (Gdánsk)*. 

Invited seminars: Roma Tre `Inequality in Rome' Seminar Series; Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy (EZK); Dutch Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations (BZK)*; De Nederlandsche Bank; ABN AMRO Bank; Dutch Competition Authority (ACM).

Policy notes: ESB (in Dutch).