Research

Working Papers

1. Flooded House or Underwater Mortgage? The Macrofinancial Implications of Climate Change and Adaptation (Job Market Paper)

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper TI 2023-014/IV, (available on SSRN). Revised: May, 2025.

Finalist, Young Economist Prize, European Central Bank (2024),

Best Student Paper Award, CEPR European Conference on Household Finance (2023),

Best Single-Authored Paper Award, European Sustainable Finance PhD Workshop (2023).

Abstract: I study the macrofinancial implications of climate change and private adaptation. Households are exposed to physical climate risks, damaging housing and degrading land which is in inelastic supply. While the exposure to climate risk weakens demand for housing, I show that the materialization of climate change raises house prices, as habitat becomes increasingly scarcer. This leads to a reallocation of credit in the economy towards households. In frictionless markets, price signals lead to efficient adaptation. However, credit-constrained households have weaker incentives to adapt to climate change, indicating that pricing alone may be insufficient. Unequal adaptation reinforces wealth inequality and leads to a further reduction in future habitat. As housing becomes increasingly important relative to future consumption, the private adaptation gap widens over time. I show that a societal shift from constrained homeownership to a rental model with unconstrained owners could lead to more efficient adaptation.

Selected conferences: NBER SI (Household Finance); SED 2025 (Copenhagen); AEA-ASSA 2025 (poster session, San Francisco); ECB Forum on Central Banking 2024 (Young Economist Competition); MoFiR 2024 (London); CEPR-ESSEC-Luxembourgh Conference on Sustainable Financial Intermediation  2024 (Luxembourgh); NY Fed & NYU Fed Climate Finance Conference 2024 (poster);  HEC Paris Finance PhD Workshop (2024); CEPR Household Finance 2023 (Turin); IWH-Fin-Fire Conference 2023 (Halle); Norges Bank Woman in Central Banking Workshop 2023 (Oslo); IPWSD at Columbia University in the City of New York 2023; CEPR Paris Symposium 2023 (poster session); European Sustainable Finance PhD Workshop 2023 (Utrecht). 

Seminars: Job talk Northwestern Kellogg School of Management; Stockholm School of Economics; Nova SBE; Bocconi; Frankfurt School of Finance & Management; Copenhagen Business School; BI Norwegian Business School; Vienna School of Economics and Business; KU Leuven; other HEC-HKUST Sustainable Finance Webinar; Massachusetts Institute of Technology  (Sustainable Urbanization Lab); Imperial College Business School (Formal PhD Seminar);  University of Mannheim; De Nederlandsche Bank.

Media coverage: VoxTalks Economics 

2. Funding the Fittest? Pricing Climate Transition Risk in the Corporate Bond Market 

with M.A. Boermans & M.J.G. Bun. 

De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper No. 797 (available on SSRN). Revised: May, 2025.

Abstract:  We examine whether climate transition risk affects the cost of capital and how investors value green innovation. Using confidential bond-level holdings and global firm data, we find evidence of a positive transition risk premium. This premium is lower for emission-intensive firms that actively engage in green innovation, suggesting that investors recognize and reward efforts to mitigate climate change. While investors divest from emission intensive firms, our findings suggest that those with greater risk-bearing capacity play a crucial role in the green transition by channeling capital toward emission-intensive firms that actively invest in green innovation. European institutional investors, particularly mutual funds, demonstrate a stronger demand for bonds issued by these firms, reducing their cost of capital relative to other emission intensive firms. 

Selected conferences: FIRS 2025 (Seoul); GRASFI 2024 (Singapore); Econometric Society World Congres (Seoul)*; ICFAB 2024 (Southampton)*; IAAE 2024 (Thessaloniki)*.

Seminars: E-Axes Forum Young Scholars' Webinar; Nova SBE; Tilburg University;  Imperial College Business School  (Informal PhD Seminar); ESCB  Research Cluster Climate Change*;  University of Utrecht (School of Economics)*; De Nederlandsche Bank;  Robeco Asset Management.

Webinar:  E-Axes Forum Young Scholars' Webinar.

Policy notes: E-Axes PB  ·  De Nederlandsche Bank  ·  SUERF   ·  E-Axes Digest.

Media coverage: Bloomberg. 

3. Political Economy of Climate Change Adaptation

with E.C. Perotti & F. Van der Ploeg. 

CEPR Discussion Paper DP18959, CESifo Working Paper No. 10961, Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper TI 2024-013/IV,  (available on SSRN). Revised: May, 2024.

Abstract: We study the evolution of voter support for public adaptation when political preferences are shaped by rising climate risk and economic inequality. Political support for tax-funded intervention to preserve habitable land evolves over time when households differ in age, income and beliefs. Support for public adaptation is initially low, rising as climate risk increases. We show that the political equilibrium experiences a tipping point in response to habitat loss if beliefs are not too dispersed, leading to a shift towards a more active adaptation policy. A steady rise in inequality may induce a second tipping point, but the policy impact depends on the balance between the gap in income and beliefs. Overall, public intervention is undermined by a "tragedy of the horizon" effect as cohorts internalize only partially its long-term benefits for future generations. This prevents public adaptation from converging to the social optimum even when political support is highest. 

Selected conferences:  EJPE-CEPR-Bocconi Political Economy 2024 (Naples); SURED 2024  (Monte Verità); CEPR Paris Symposium 2023.

Policy notes: VoxEU.

4. Home Improvements, Wealth Inequality and the Energy-Efficiency Paradox

with M.Droës.

Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper TI 2024-026/IV,  (available on SSRN). Revised: May, 2025.

Abstract: We explore the pace at which households transition to greener housing and its effects on the distribution of wealth and CO2 emissions. Using unique Dutch data, we document that lower-income households are less likely to undertake energy-efficiency improvements, while higher-income households are more likely to sort into energy-efficient homes. Energy savings represent 17% of median net wealth, with sorting accounting for 65% of this effect. Policies encouraging green housing among lower-income households reduce poverty and wealth inequality, but only realize 37% of the potential CO2 emission reduction. Our findings highlight a fundamental trade-off between advancing climate goals and promoting redistribution.

Selected conferences: AREUEA-ASSA 2025 (San Francisco); AREUEA International 2024 (Curaçao); ERES 2024 (Gdánsk)*. 

Seminars: Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy (EZK); Dutch Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations (BZK)*; De Nederlandsche Bank; ABN AMRO Bank; Dutch Competition Authority (ACM).

Policy notes: ESB (in Dutch).